The Larry Kane Report

What will students do?

A new CBS News Survey, released by KYW Newsradio,  was conducted along with The  Triangle Newspaper at Drexel and The Daily Pennsylvanian at Penn. It is all about student views toward the Pa. primary and the election. A part of the survey  is among all college students in Pennsylvania, whether they can vote in Pa. or not , and it shows that 9 out of ten are interested in this election

Among Pa. students , all potential  primary voters, Obama gets 78 Clinton gets 22. Obama has a large margin over John McCain. Clinton runs 50-50 against him among Pa. students registered to vote.

We should point out that college students are but 4 percent of the total Democratic voting population in Pa. but if they come out in higher numbers,  in a close race, they could make a difference.

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What happens in public the next few days, the rallies, the whistlestops, the commercials,will be overshadowed by what’s going on behind the scenes. And here’s what will happen…

Thousands of volunteers , maybe as many as 20 thousand,, re now canvassing homes and are on phone banks. The Clinton campaign has centered its canvassing effort in Delaware County,  in the suburbs, Northeast Phila. and  most of Southwestern Pa.

The Obama campaig is well entrenched in Philadelphia and Montgomery,  Bucks and Chester Counties. It is  interesting to note that Northeast Philadelphia, the Scranton area and west and north of there is now considered an area of opportunity for Obama.

One of the reasons polling is so uncertain is that get out the vote efforts for either side can make Tuesday a difficult night for pollsters

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Endorsements. What do they mean. Yesterday Robert Reich,f ormer Labor Secretary for President Clinton,  endorsed Barack Obama, the latest Clintonite to turn to the other side. Obama also received the endorsement of former Senators Sam Nunn and David Boren, both respected conservative Democrats.

These endotsememys are not unusual; because they come so close to a Democratoc Primary that is deemed important. Endorsements before primariers are more valuable than after.

On the Clinton side, key endorsements have come io waves and certainly the scores of Pa. Mayors who endorsed her In Harrisburg last week could make a difference.

But the arrival of Sam Nunn , Robert Reich and David Boren on the Obama campaign train indicates that there may be, nd the word MAY is very important here: There may be some movement toward a national party consensus when the Indiana and North Carolina primaries are over on May 6.

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Some things to watch for in the final 72 hours of the campaign. Both campaigns will continue to spin their story of the outcome. They will be minimalists. The Obama staff will talk about how far the gap has been narrowed. The Clinton camp will say that it will be very close, therefore hoping for a bigger win. The pollsters will have sleepless nights because they worry about the unknown. What about those 300 thousand new registered Democrats?  Who will they vote for?  How many Republicans changed registration to vote for who they think is the weaker candidate? Who has the best street organization?

And then there are the unknowns that drive campaign strategists crazy at this point in time. Is the momentum shifting one ,way or the other? And if it is where? And finally, if there are 14 percent undecided, as the F and M poll  suggests, who will they vote for in the privacy of that booth?

Comments(60)

Jimmy Carter was a below average President, but he was an intelligent man with the nation’s interests at heart. That chapter in his life is over. He is clearly an obstructionist to the national interests. His defiance of State Department wishes shows that he is more interested in himself than the nation at large.

The fact that Carter would meet and embrace a Hamas leader is indicative of his betrayal of American interests. President Carter, as ex President, is offering solace and support to a terrorist government that has embraced the savage murder of civilians as a policy of its tiny and distorted dictatorship. President Carter needs to face reality, the reality that these are the same types of terrorists who destroyed his own chances of getting a second term by their defiance of the norm of international relations. Now, he thumbs his nose not just at the Bush administration, but at the Democrats and Republicans who urged  him not to go, not to reward the killers.

This is a painful moment in the retired life of Jimmy Carter. It is a sad moment for the American dialogue overseas. It will be an even sadder moment when he meets soon with the Supreme Hamas leader in Syria.

Former Presidents who served our country deserve our respect.  President Carter and his erratic and anti-Semitic behavior in the last several years, has compromised himself, and at the same time, his nation.

Comments(65)

The campaigns of Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania are heading toward a disastrous and nasty finish in this battle. Clinton attacked Obama for describing some Pa. residents, especially small town Pennsylvanians, as “bitter” about the loss of jobs. Obama struck back, saying his choice of words may have been a problem, but that some voters are disturbed about Washington’s lack of empathy.

The Obama campaign is sending reprints of the Washington Post correspondents piece giving Bill Clinton “THREE PINNOCHIOS” (like movie ratings), for his defense of Clinton’s Bosnia gaffe. The Clinton campaign is posting videos of Obama’s “bitter” speech all over the web. The Obama campaign has issued a blistering attack against Clinton’s attack. The Clinton team has launched two negative ads against Obama.

So much for Democratic Party unity.

The last time I can remember something this bad was the Jimmy Carter, Ted Kennedy battle for the nomination in 1980. Carter won the nomination. Kennedy never gave up. Ronald Reagan won the Presidency.

All of this comes with 9 days left till the Pennsylvania Primary, a must win for Clinton, a challenge for Obama, and the scene of the most political bloodletting yet in this campaign.

I marvel at the war room environment of this campaign. I wonder if it is already too late to heal the Democratic Party. But then, I have other thoughts – that the Democratic battle has energized a lot of Independents and NEW Democrats.

Right now I am an analyst with a split view of this Democratic dilemma. As many of you know, I speak to party insiders on a regular basis.

One thing I know: The Republicans in Pennsylvania, under-financed and neglected in the press, are starting to feel good again, about November.

A second point. Truly, the bitterness between Obama and Clinton is very real. The party may eventually be united, but don’t look for Barack and Hillary to have real peace between them for a long, long time.

Comments(68)

I spent a few hours at Great Valley High in Malvern where Barack Obama conducted another one of his patented contemporary version of political rock star in concert. What impressed me about the rally was the response by the high schoolers to specific issues. I have not seen that kind of enthusiasm for politics in decades.

For his part, Obama is flawless as he discusses the economic issues of the times with clarity and a great deal of humor. The candidate is placed on a podium that makes it appear that he is one of the crowd. It is very clever staging, but he handles the question and answers deftly and without hesitation.

Behind the scenes, the campaign apparatus is flawless. The Obama campaign staffers are young, spirited, and amazingly polite. I remember the Al Gore campaign in 2000, and the layers of bureacracy, and how poorly it was run. Whoever designed the internal aspects of communications for Obama is a genius in planning.

AFTER THE RALLY, I TALKED TO OBAMA IN A ONE-ON-ONE FOR KYW NEWS RADIO. THE ENTIRE INTERVIEW CAN BE HEARD AT KYW1060.com. This is a different type of interview touching on some personal aspects of his style. But I was surprised to hear his cautious confidence about the Pa. Primary.

For you Hillary fans, have no fear. We’ve offered her the same opportunity. Still waiting for the RSVP.

Once again, beginning Thursday morning, the entire Obama interview is on KYW1060.com.

Comments(70)

When I first arrived in the area in 1966, Montgomery County was truly the Republican stronghold of the Eastern half of the United States. People who lived there told me, that to get things done, people had to register Republican. That, of course, was a myth, but a good conversation piece.

As of Friday, the official registration figures showed that Montgomery County is now a Democratic County. How did this happen? Well, first of all, there are changing demographics. Thousands of people who moved from the city to the suburbs were Democrats to begin with. Then, of course, there are several significant milestones.

In the nineties, two Democrats won election to Congress. In 2002, Ed Rendell swept the county on his way to becoming Governor. John Kerry was on a hot streak in 2004. And in 2006, Bob Casey defeated Rick Santorum for the Senate in the once arch conservative county.

And then there is George W. Bush. Bush has virtually destroyed the Republican brand in the country, and Montgomery County voters are not happy with him. The war has played a role, along with the economy and questions of competence in government. For this dramatic shift, you can also give credit to Barack Obama, who registers Republicans very quickly in states where he needs them. And Hillary Clinton has played a role.

Most of all, Montgomery County Democrats are providing fresh leadership in state and county government, leaders like Joe Hoeffel and powerful Josh Shapiro, at 34 years old the Deputy Speaker of the Pa. House.

Most of all, its the voters. They have become a bellwether of the nation in searching for new trends and new people . They are fiercely independent voters who don’t like party labels. And they demand excellence and idealism.

How they decide the Obama-Clinton battle on April 22 will tell you a lot about the rest of this campaign.

If  Barack Obama can win big in Montgomery County , he will close the gap in the state. Hillary Clinton needs to hold her own there to have any chance of gaining a big win in Pa.

As Montgomery County goes, so may the nation.

Comments(21)