The Pundits May Be Wrong About The Democratic Party Wars
You’ve read it. You’ve heard it. Now maybe you know that those in the business of political analysis ( this reporter included ) may be clueless about what voters are feeling.
Many of the national writers and broadcasters have been pushing hard on the concept that the Democrats are beating each other up so much that victory may be elusive against John McCain. That is apparently not the case in Pennsylvania, where several national polling organizations report that both Obama and Clinton would, if the election were held right now, crush John McCain. Similar polls have Obama beating McCain in battleground states like Minnesota and Colorado, and Clinton close to beating him in those states.
We’ve got a real problem in this business: someone strikes a theme and everybody seems to follow.
Well, I’ll strike a theme. The people are generally more perceptive than the people who bring them the news. Recent “herd mentality” reports include the all out destruction of the Democratic party by the campaign so far. True, in the end, the Democrats may get beaten badly by how the campaign actually ends. The true nature of Bill, Hillary and Barack will be tested by that. But right now, the Democrats are hardly fractured.
Second evidence of “herd mentality” - the notion that Obama has to get in the gutter to win, notably by Time Columnist Joe Klein. If Obama wants to be high minded, so be it. If the Clinton’s want to get down and dirty, they are doing it on their tab. Frankly, if Obama doesn’t want to strike back, he could lose the primary battle. If Clinton seeks to continue to be combative, her negatives will climb, and she will be in peril.
The problem with us is that we think our advice is perfect, because we are so smart. Maybe both of them are smarter than us.
In the meantime, the new herd mantra is, “the race is close.” The other is “Obama has lost his groove” The third is, “Bill is a problem.” On that one, I agree.
Final question: has anyone in the traveling press corps asked Hillary Clinton how she feels about the commercials sponsored by the GOP in North Carolina, touting Reverend Wright’s speeches and attacking Obama for knowing him.
Now that would be smart questioning.
Hello Larry,the rev wright just finished his free primetime televised naacp speech,saying a change is coming,and yes we can not bad for a preacherman that has nothing to do with politics.
if rev wright can campaign for obama, then what is the problem of Bill Clinton campaigning for his wife Hill and wouldn’t that be the greatest revenge for Bill Clinton be to have Hillary beat the rightwingers in november.
Obama will handle McCain this fall once the distraction of the flaming wreck of the Clinton disaster is cleared from the deck.
And the Democrats are badly fractured. I wouldn’t count on a lot of African-American support for Hillary since she’s been appealing to the prejudices of her core supporters, smearing Obama by mentioning Farrakhan again and again. She and Bill are doing some serious damage to the party. Count this as an example of a person being more perceptive than the person who purports to be bringing the news.
p.s. Keep you eye on Michigan and Florida. The Democrats will have serious problems if Hillary manages to get the party to join her in reneging on her prior position that those delegates should not be seated. She’s really pressing for it. If she “steals” the nomination, I’d say we’ll have at least four years of McCain. And she’ll end up like Vince Foster.
Hello Larry,michigan and florida must be counted to have a legitimate candidate,no stealing needed just let the american people be counted in all states,the problem is obama had it, but could not clinch it just like the 1964 phillies.
shoulda/woulda/coulda and btw the american people do not want louie farrakhan hanging in the white house or rev wright either.
JR, there’s a nice bigot. Obama has no relationship with Farrakhan. You drank the racist Clinton Kool-Aid.
leo my friend, you are stuck on stupid the rev wright and farrakhan are liabilities,the only racist getting air time is the ‘great’ rev wright and he is crushing the obama campaign,how barry obama and michelle and to let there kids listen to that hate trash for the last 20 years is very troubling.
larry,
I believe the democratic party is not only fractured but broken beyondrepair.
I know I am done with them.They have shown their disloyalty,back bitting and down right venom and I am sick of all of them. If hillary isn’t the nominee,I WILL NOT VOTE in nov.and I will change my party.
I had a friend who once told me that politcs wasn’t personal,its just politics,
well I am afraid that is no longer true.
The media/cable guys are a disgrace.The newspaper reporters are a disgrace and this has been the worse campaign of my long life.
We live in a Constitutional Democracy (with the best and first major Constitution in the World! that most other countries have copied)…this means that we the people are ultimately responsible for everything our President and Congress does. They know this, so they think if we don’t impeach or kick them out of office they are justified in whatever they do, especially the Republicans!…and they’re right!
If we keep re-electing the same old people to the same old positions of power, then WE THE PEOPLE are truly responsible for their actions. This means that all those who voted for Bush, especially twice, own this invasion/occupation of Iraq , they own the torture, the concentration camps, the deaths of over a million Iraqis (a third children under 12), the total destruction of their country, etc.,
Our soldiers don’t own any of this, they just follow orders,… we who never protest, who vote Republican, who don’t demand impeachment, etc. own this invasion/occupation of Iraq!
4/28/2008 7:15:38 AM
Bird,
You seem more concerned about Iraq than the issues in your country. You need to move past Iraq. We’ll be out of there soon enough. Cut and run in January if the Democrats get elected. Then the real blood bath and misery will start.
The world has changed, Bird, the days of peace, environmental and social protests are over. I know you miss your Hippie youth but it’s time to grow up now.
Larry,i agree with Pat,if the super delegates don’t step up and ‘do the right thing’ and make Hillary the nominee,
the american people got to see what the obama’s been following for the last 20 years and it is not pretty,to ridicule John F Kennedy by this the hateful ‘man of god’ is the final nail in the obama coffin,it’s over for obama,the obama people should think about the helping the party get back in the Whitehouse and winning the general election in november.
JR, your powers of extrapolation are dwarfed only by your mathematical skills. First, two snippets of sermons do not add up to twenty years. Have you even listened to the sermons in toto? I seriously doubt it. That’s bigotry on your part. And which of the Obamas’ children is 20 years old? Obviously you believe one of them is if you’re going to claim that the Obamas have been exposing their children to “hate” for twenty years. Sloppy. (Still, that would be so much better than the Clintons, who only exposed their daughter to several highly publicized sex scandals invovling daddy, who never did learn to keep it in his pants. So let me disagree with you about which are the worse parents.)
leo,we can see this rev wright racist rant is really taking the wind out of your sail,the Clintons are not perfect but they know how to run a country and they did not let the rev wright mentor them for the last 20 years.
The Clintons know how to run a country? What, by overreaching and creating a right wing backlash that causes the party to lose the Congress for the first time in decades? Best laugh of the day, JR. Thanks for that.
LB, as always LOL material. Kudos.
I actually watched Rev Wright last night on CNN. He was doing a speach at the NAACP meeting in Detroit.
He is far more intelligent and insightful than most give him credit for. He is a bit over-the-top with his exuberance but he is an intelligent and thoughtful person. I don’t agree with everything he says (sound bytes) but he is not the nut job the Clintons (and in turn the press) make him out to be.
leo yes the Clintons know how to run a country compared to bush 1&2,the Clinton bashers are a dime a dozen and most are bush/chaney apologists, but it’s pathetic when a ‘man of god’ uses the bible to cover up his racist hate,is that the kind of people you support leo.
let’s see we have the racist preacher,louie farrakan,and a uni bomber on the obama team,that’s great leo,
blue collar middle class americans are not buying that ‘i said this but i meant that’nonsense,go sell that snake oil somewhere else leo.
GOD BLESS AMERICA!!!
Just heard a bit of Reverend Wright’s speech today at the National Press Club.He claims the responses to his vitriolic sermons aren’t attacks on him,they’re attacks on the Black Church.Strikes me as cowardly of him.
leo over 20 years,240 months,7300 days,173,800 hours,the rev wracist has been mentoring barry and michelle obama,leo how could they sit and listen to the rev wracist for that long leo,leo how could they just sit there for 20 years and adore the rev wracist hiding behind god’s bible, please leo why,why,why, 20 years of very poor judgement,what more can we say leo.
My comments aren’t showing up, maybe because I was linking to an essay by Stanley Fish in the NY Times about the politics of association and swiftboating, etc.
JR, I can’t help you with your bigoted and uninformed views. You’re so far over the line, I don’t think you can even see it from where you are. Perhaps you could go and read the transcript of Obama’s speech about race instead of trying to be a junior version of Jesse Helms.
Wow, Leo and JR, you guys are really going at it today. Perhaps you should take some free air at Wawa, free air makes people like Larry and me happy, you guys should try it. But seriously, your tiff is really a microcosm of what this protracted primary is doing to the Democratic party. Frankly, I hope it continues and one of you ends up voting for McCain. That’s what we Republicans are praying for, and it is the only way McCain wins since thing are so srewed up after eight years of Bush. Keep it up guys, I’ll be allied with one of you come November!
JR prefers helium. Not only does he sound like Mickey Mouse but it clouds his judgement. Is there any other possible explanation?
“Helium - the official gas of the Clinton campaign”
Obama doesn’t have to get in the gutter to win. Hillary’s negatives from being in the gutter and from her arrogant approach to politics are so high that she can’t win. Too many white bigots vote Republican for Hillary to be elected relying on their support. McCain will have enough senior moments (Iran supporting Sunni terrorist groups, anyone? Anyone? Bueller?) and tizzies with the press that he’ll go down in flames. Plus, someone might show McCain the trigger card, turning him into the Manchurian Candidate based on the extensive programming he underwent in captivity in Vietnam.
For those regular bloggers who are looking to get ahead of Larry, here are his next 6 blog titles:
1) Hitch’in my wagon to Fast Eddie Rendell’s ‘rising star’. Fact or fiction?
2) Just when you thought Jimmy Carter had gone away quietly, he he sticks his nose into the abyss of the Middle East.
3) Reverend Wright - Mensa or menace?
4) The Brave New World of Larry Kane - riding SEPTA at night!
5) Why is there air (and why should we have to pay for it)?
6) Jack Russell - Clinton lapdog or closet Rightwinger?
George,can you please give leo a free hair cut and a fresh set of clothes maybe a (fluffy shirt like on seinfeld))after all the spinning in the gutter with the obama team and rev wracist all day long he needs to clean up,and maybe if Hillary gets screwed by her own party i might just join you in line in november.
I think Jack gets puffy shorts everytime he thinks of HRC.
By the way Jack, if your party had any balls, they would have told her to go home before Texas for the good of the party. If she gets screwed, it won’t be by her party. Same can’t be said about Obama. He will get screwed by his party if they admit Florida and Michigan delegates, allow Superdelegates to vote on “gift money” alone and allow this nomination to become a free-for-all on the convention floor.
Today, several economists have pointed at McCain’s and Clinton’s suggestion of a “gas tax” holiday as being economically unsound pandering. While the tax is $.18 per gallon (or about $1.50 on a fill up for most cars), lifting the tax would not reduce demand. Nor would it guarantee that oil companies would pass savings on to consumers. Prices would increase as demand increases this summer. The $.18 difference would go straight to the oil companies and foreign governments selling us oil. Meanwhile, we’d be passing up an important source of revenue for infrastructure maintenance, which yields thousands of good-paying jobs. All to save about $20-40 over the course of the summer. Hillary’s empty promise pandering ultimately hurts the working class. Way to go, Hillary! (And why is it that Hillary opposed such tax holidays on gas in the past but throws them out now like they’re going out of style? Because she’s an inveterate opportunist who doesn’t actually care about anything other than being elected.)
I resemble that!
Leo, you are correct about the gas holiday, just political smoke and mirrors. The Bush tax checks are coming this week and people can spend the money as they wish, rather than give a direct subsisidy at the pump that could go to big oil, or gas stations that also rape consumers for $.50 air. Many don’t drive or are frugal about how they do consume gas, so why give a tax break to someone driving a Hummer? Give the Hummer driver and the Prius driver a tax rebate and let them decide how to spend it. Hey Leo, if Barrack loses will you support Mccain? we can use some smart guys. Barrack just unloaded on Rev Wright and threw him under the bus. I wonder if today’s developments will give Larry enough courage to fianlly denounce Rev Wright as an anti-Semite, after all now Obama has, so it’s probably safe.
George, while flattery usually will get you everywhere, I more likely than not will not support McCain. However, if Hillary is the nominee, I will probably not vote in the presidential race. I will not vote for someone who plays the game Hillary plays. I have my principles, man. I think she’d set back the progressive agenda and bring about a right wing backlash, just as she and Bill did in 1994. I’ll confine myself to voting in other races this November if she’s the Democratic nominee. (At the same time, McCain’s tax policies would be in my short-term economic interest. I’m happy to vote against my short-term economic self interest if I see long term dividends for everyone. I see that with Obama. Not with Hillary.)
Thanks Leo, I repsect your priciples. I’m not Clinton fan either so it would be great to see Obama get a fair shot at McCain in November. Unfortuatly, whatever happens with Democrat nominee there will always be a cloud because of the FL and MI votes, which is really neither canadidate’s fault. I must admit Hillary is doing a good job at staying in it, and oddly Rev Wright is helping her as he speaks in his own defense. These upcoming primaries will be interesting to see if Obama really lost traction as appeared to be the case in PA.
Terry McAuliffe got exposed for the fraud that he is when it was revealed that he warned Carl Levin in 2004 that there was no way in hell that any MI delegates would bet anywhere near the floor if Mi moved its primary in 2004. “Rules are rules” he said, and if they started letting states move up their primaries it would be impossible to manage the campaigns, or something to that effect. But now, when Clinton didn’t have the integrity to keep her name off the ballot, so only her votes would count, she wants those cherry picked votes to count. So 2000.