The Political Notebook Is Wide Open – Thoughts On The Final Three Days
What will students do?
A new CBS News Survey, released by KYW Newsradio, was conducted along with The Triangle Newspaper at Drexel and The Daily Pennsylvanian at Penn. It is all about student views toward the Pa. primary and the election. A part of the survey is among all college students in Pennsylvania, whether they can vote in Pa. or not , and it shows that 9 out of ten are interested in this election
Among Pa. students , all potential primary voters, Obama gets 78 Clinton gets 22. Obama has a large margin over John McCain. Clinton runs 50-50 against him among Pa. students registered to vote.
We should point out that college students are but 4 percent of the total Democratic voting population in Pa. but if they come out in higher numbers, in a close race, they could make a difference.
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What happens in public the next few days, the rallies, the whistlestops, the commercials,will be overshadowed by what’s going on behind the scenes. And here’s what will happen…
Thousands of volunteers , maybe as many as 20 thousand,, re now canvassing homes and are on phone banks. The Clinton campaign has centered its canvassing effort in Delaware County, in the suburbs, Northeast Phila. and most of Southwestern Pa.
The Obama campaig is well entrenched in Philadelphia and Montgomery, Bucks and Chester Counties. It is interesting to note that Northeast Philadelphia, the Scranton area and west and north of there is now considered an area of opportunity for Obama.
One of the reasons polling is so uncertain is that get out the vote efforts for either side can make Tuesday a difficult night for pollsters
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Endorsements. What do they mean. Yesterday Robert Reich,f ormer Labor Secretary for President Clinton, endorsed Barack Obama, the latest Clintonite to turn to the other side. Obama also received the endorsement of former Senators Sam Nunn and David Boren, both respected conservative Democrats.
These endotsememys are not unusual; because they come so close to a Democratoc Primary that is deemed important. Endorsements before primariers are more valuable than after.
On the Clinton side, key endorsements have come io waves and certainly the scores of Pa. Mayors who endorsed her In Harrisburg last week could make a difference.
But the arrival of Sam Nunn , Robert Reich and David Boren on the Obama campaign train indicates that there may be, nd the word MAY is very important here: There may be some movement toward a national party consensus when the Indiana and North Carolina primaries are over on May 6.
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Some things to watch for in the final 72 hours of the campaign. Both campaigns will continue to spin their story of the outcome. They will be minimalists. The Obama staff will talk about how far the gap has been narrowed. The Clinton camp will say that it will be very close, therefore hoping for a bigger win. The pollsters will have sleepless nights because they worry about the unknown. What about those 300 thousand new registered Democrats? Who will they vote for? How many Republicans changed registration to vote for who they think is the weaker candidate? Who has the best street organization?
And then there are the unknowns that drive campaign strategists crazy at this point in time. Is the momentum shifting one ,way or the other? And if it is where? And finally, if there are 14 percent undecided, as the F and M poll suggests, who will they vote for in the privacy of that booth?
Comments(60)
Enndotsememys, you say? Is this a secret weapon?
Hillary needed a big win in PA combined with a win in Indiana to win the nomination.
Her PA lead has dwindled to just 3 points even after all her negative attacks. She has fallen behind in Indiana and North Carolina is a done deal for Obama.
Hopefully, he can take PA and put an end to this madness. We can’t afford 4 more years of Bush-lite in the White House.
We need the Iraq money to be spent on AMERICANS!
We remain ever hopeful. Go Obama. Did people check out Hillary’s comments about MOVEON in a closed door supporters session.That group was responsible for her being where she is today, they covered her fanny after all of those sex scandels got Bill impeached. She’s always talking ahead of her brain, deep inside she thinks she can just explain her actions away. People are tired of the Clinton machine.
jac, she made those comments because she wanted to show (again) how hypocritical she can be. She had been attacking Obama by telling superdelegates that he was the one offending important parts of the base. Oooops. It’s time to show her the door. Her policy views are more beneficial in the Senate, where she can do good work.
Students should think about this:
Barack Obama supposedly spent his entire professional life working for and representing the South Side of Chicago. By any measurable standard (education, income, crime etc.), the area has deteriorated unbelievably in the last twenty years. If Senator Obama can’t “fix” one part of one city of one state—how is he going to fix the nation??
Right on John B, Barack is just a Jesse Jackson clone who speaks better, but with no substance, not to mention a bigot and racist. Not only couldn’t he fix that part of Chicago, but truthfully, does he have any real policies, or is he going to keep going around like some homeless person looking for “Change”. Can you spare some change, we need change!
This guy is an empty suit, and if he is whining and crying already about unfair attacks wait till the general election!!!
I can see the Clinton Fear Mongering Machine is already out in full force. Larry, you may be right. For the first time since 1776 Philadelphia and Pennsylvania may be significant. I take that back, it was significant during Rocky movies in 70′s and 80′s.
Obama supporters: don’t fall for this last minute nonsense. HRC has clearly defined herself as a felon, lier and self-righteous panderer.
as a former commiteeperson,I can tell youthat no one votes he way they say they do.The people will tell you ,yes I am voting for x,then they go into the privacy of the booth and they vote for y
Most people do not want anyone to know who they vote for,thats why they call it a secret ballot.
As far as picking a nominee,when I was young,all that was done at the convention,the delegates would call out their votes from the floor,and usually the last night we would have a nominee and the place would go wild.
Now,they want everything over before all the states get to vote,thus keeping millions of voters from voting,why bother, if your vote means nothing,
I am supporting Hillary and I will under no circumstances vote for obama,so I believe will a lot of hillary supporters
If it’s obama vs McCain,McCain will get my vote
Pat, so to follow your logic (“no one votes the way they say they do”) that means you are actually voting for Obama?
Where is that Clinton rumpswab JR this morning? Standing on the corner of Broad and Patterson with a Clinton sign? Say Hallelujah!
other,other other jim
No way Man,I’d rather vote for Mickey Mouse or donald Duck.Vote for obama, when Pigs fly!
Pigs are flying! Say Hallelujah!
Hello larry,
john b,pat,mike,I am buying what you are selling.
The democratic party better wakeup and smell the coffee before it is too late.
The only way i will vote for barry obama is if osama gives up to obama as the rev wright and calypso louie farakan sing god bless america and wear flag label pins in the background.
talk about charity the barry obama’s gave 5 percent with the Clinton’s gave 15 percent,the penna. people are not going to let the media tell them how to vote .
JR,
There you go again confusing flag lapel pins with patriotism and tax deductible charities as generocity. The $100M the Clintons made doing what? Residual from the Whitewater deal?
Grab your sign and go back to Broad Street…
Personally I’m very happy Obama doesn’t wear a flag pin (neither does Hillary I believe), Flag Pins are for Dictators and sycophants…Hitler and the SS wore flag pins, Stalin wore flag pins…denigration of the American flag by wearing it as a propaganda pin is NOT patriotic. Joining the marines to defend our freedom (not to defend oil corporations) is patriotic, joining the police to protect the people (not the rich and corrupt) is patriotic, joining the Peace Corps or an NGO to fight poverty and oppression is patriotic, starting a green energy company or an organic farm is patriotic, protesting in the streets to stop torture and close down concentration camps is patriotic, stopping polluters or animal torturers is patriotic, being informed by listening to Ron Paul or watching Democracy Now is patriotic, wearing a flag pin on your lapel is fascist patriotism,lazy patriotism, not real patriotism. Obama is totally right on this!
“Barack is just a Jesse Jackson clone who speaks better, but with no substance, not to mention a bigot and racist”
I can’t figure out if this comment is more ignorant or racist!
Posters should have to pass an intelligence test before being allowed to waste people’s time posting here.
As for Jack R,
This is the fun time. Even if Hillary manages to barely hang on to PA her goose is cooked. She will lose the next two states and the race will be over.
Life is good!
Reverend Wright
From 1959 to 1961, Wright attended Virginia Union University,[1] in Richmond. Inspired by President John F. Kennedy’s 1961 challenge to “Ask not what your country can do for you, but what you can do for your country,” Wright gave up his student deferment, left college and joined the United States Marine Corps and became part of the 2nd Marine Division with the rank of private first class. In 1963, after two years of service, Wright then transferred to the United States Navy and entered the Corpsman School at the Great Lakes Naval Training Center, where he graduated as valedictorian.[6] Having excelled in corpsman school, Wright was then trained as a cardiopulmonary technician at the National Naval Medical Center in Bethesda, Maryland where he graduated as salutatorian.[6] Wright was assigned as part of the medical team charged with care of President Lyndon B. Johnson (see photo of Wright caring for Johnson after his 1966 surgery). Before leaving the position in 1967, the White House awarded Wright three letters of commendation.[7][8][9]
I will sit here and wait for someone to post the military honors of GW Bush, Bill Clinton, and Dick Cheney – the draft dodgers!
your apologies for rev wright are documented,what happened after 1967 and you left out the tribute to calypso louie farrakan the very good friend of rev wright the minister and mentor of barry obama.
i agree that bush and chaney are draft dodging war mongers making money off the dead end war in iraq.
it will be fun to watch the results on tuesday night when do you think the ‘experts’ will declare the winner 8:00 or 8:15 or 8:30.
the Hillary Clinton supporters will back her to the ‘bitter’end,
if obama is the candidate in november god bless him and God Bless America!
JR,
You sound like a bitter little man with an odd perspective. Back HRC to the bitter end. The Republicans hope HRC gets nomination. HRC = Helps Republican Candidate. The Repubs will drop the “L” bomb on HRC and the Dems will wish Obama was their man. And I don’t mean liberal…
Birdbrain,
You are late for your kids’ soccer game and you have to rush back for your jewelry party tonight. What a full day! I hope you are being facetious with that liberal nonsense. No one could possibly be that full of you-know-what. You give true Democrats a bad name with all that liberal crap and do-gooder talk. The days for the socialist Democrats are over. That’s why we get beat in the polls everytime. It’s the spend and tax mentality that we need to get past. History.
OIL: The world runs on oil. Oil is the lifeblood on which the world economy is based.
CORPORATIONS: Corporations are responsible for most of the charitable donations and programs fighting poverty.
Their R&D is responsible for disease, pest and weather resistant foods that have brought hope to some of the worst famine and disease stricken countries in the world.
THE RICH: For good or for bad, the rich rule the world. Name the last president who was not a multi-millionare? Contrary to what you hear, the rich pay most of the taxes. The rich are the ones who start the businesses that give poor people the opportunity to make a living.
My point is that it certainly is patriotic to fight for these things. Without just one of the above, the world would come to a halt and the good life as we all know it would be gone. Thrown into anarchy and chaos.
BFO, that is the stupidest thing I’ve ever heard. Equating Hilter’s SS pin to wearing a US flag lapel pin. Sound’s like your bird flew the coup. Also sounds un-American. You may wanna rethink that one, dude.
oj-it is easy to be ‘bitter’ after reading droppings from birdbrain,but you are obama blind and your attack on Hillary is just dirty politics,the rightwingers don’t want to dance with Hillary ,when they can have barry obama with the rev wright and sidekick calypso louie on a silver platter.
Remember the “L” word
JF
You forgot draft dodging Bill
“Draft Dodging” not relevant. John Kerry was Vietnam Vet and he was a dweeb.
I, like many democrats, are torn between Hillary and Obama…why? I like Hillary because what she says on the stump is more socialist than Obama, more to the left, and God knows America needs to go left left left, not Communism, but socialism with freedom, like in Germany, France, Iceland, Denmark, the Netherlands, Taiwan, Japan.., real freedom, freedom of the press of course, but also freedom to create a business or own property. Yet I also want freedom from corporations that pollute, police that tazer, I also want the freedom to protest wars, invasions and torture, without fear of being tazered or thrown in jail for it. Apparently Hemp oil cures cancer, I would like the freedom to pay taxes to research that to see if it’s true and force our drug companies to make it even though it can’t be patented (i.e., even though it cures cancer it would be a money loser because chemotherapy is SO profitable). Republicans have destroyed our freedom to have decent health care, I’d love to pay taxes for health care but not for war…51% of our taxes go to war and our military industrial complex today…that’s worse than China or Russia! One trillion dollars in tax welfare and tax breaks go to corporations which pollute our land, air and water! I don’t mind giving some money to stimulate businesses like First Solar, Nanosolar, Google etc..but apparently they don’t need it…instead our taxes go to coal and oil??? Hillary is a good person, I really like her and I hope Obama gives her what she wants to continue fighting for human rights and health care, however my vote goes to Obama because today we need a leader to stand up to the corporations that pollute and lobby for war, I don’t think Hillary can do that she’s too much like her husband in that respect…compromise, compromise, compromise…Obama risked his Senate career to come out against the invasion of Iraq which has bankrupted this country, Hillary trusted Bush…these are extremely important indications of character…Hillary yes, but Obama making the big decisions!!! I wish Obama was a little more to the left…but we need a leader first, to bring us back to the moral highground…socialism can come later!
MCeasar…great post…if you’re not working for the Obama campaign you should be!! Thanks for the info! Mind if I copy it and paste around giving you credit of course?
Birdbrain,
Move to Germany and see how you like it there. Socialism doesn’t work. Give to charities, work in food kitchens and volunteer in battered women homes if you feel the need to help the less fortunate. The old liberal view of pandering to the less fortunate for their vote is no longer feasible. People should be helped but not supported. Our welfare society and generations of people looking to the government for help needs to end. We may need to shift a bit to the left but not even to center.
As far as terrorists go, you are far too naive. These people mean business. They would just as soon cut your head off on TV. We need to deal with them differently than a DUI, bank robber or white collar crime. We need to know what they are planning and squash it before another 9/11. Desperate times require desperate actions. I’m sure you think the answer is fly to Pakistan, meet with Osama Bin Laden, tell him we’ll stop being a world policeman and sing Kumbabaya around the campfire in his cave. Everything will be groovy. Are you sure you are not already experimenting with hemp?
No prob Bird
JR
Good job
We all hope that whichever one of the 3 gets elected that our highest hopes for them come true and not our worst fears.
Hillary is very smart. I think that if she had of just stuck to the issues and shown the nation how much more she knows about policy than Obama she would have won going away.
But her angry and dishonest personality keeps getting in the way of her brains. She is not W and she can’t do the Karl Rove type attacks. It comes off as angry and BITTER from her.
I loved McCain in 2000 but W/Rove did such a number on him that he has changed his message and compromised his integrity to gain the support of the right wing nuts.
I like Obama because he has the most vision and he does bring people together – it is not just a slogan. Almost all of the attacks on him are not really attacks on him but on someone who is very loosely associated with him. Hillary’s issues are directly on her.
McCain attaching himself to follow behind W is a disaster.
TERRORISM
When are some of the people here and running this country going to realize that the big stick approach doesn’t work any more?
Al-Sadr could be a working partner with us in a lasting solution in Iraq that allows us to bring our troops home. Instead we want to destroy him and we are just adding fuel to the fire against the USA.
There was no Al Qaeda in Iraq before W’s illegal war and invasion. We need to drop the bully mentality because it is having the opposite effect.
We can’t afford 4 more years of McCain or Clinton and the failed foreign policy of the past.
MC,
W is fundamentally a good, misguided person. He listened to the rightwing extremists in his staff (Cheney and Rumsfield). The war in Iraq is a mistake. You can argue that delaying the inevitable departure from Iraq is only costing taxpayers money and US lives. Regardless of your feelings about the war’s justification, we have created a power vacumm in the region. It would be foolhardy, destabilizing and dangerous to just walk away as HRC and Obama claim they would do.
Both Hillary and McCain voted to fund the “illegal” war in Iraq. It’s unclear on Obama despite his claims to the contrary. Are they complicit in the “illegal” war?
Personally, I’d rather fight Al Queda with our military in Iraq than the streets of America.
The difference between W and HRC is that, as previously mentioned, W is a good natured, misguided puppet for the far right. He let his cowboy mentality get the best of him. In his heart he believes he is doing what is best for America, as misguided as it may be.
HRC is a devious, powerhungry manipulator that would do ANYTHING to ascend to her thrown. Throw in the First Felon and you have quite a pair. If Democrats want to move forward, they need to move away from the past policies and personalities that have failed.
To: MCaesar…thanks and I agree with your posts
To: other…jim: you got me all wrong bro…I hate charity it’s degrading, welfare is degrading too, I hate welfare..but that’s exactly what we give our corporations and the rich fat cats, welfare…to the tune of trillions, yet they have no honor, no pride, they accept it no problem, what douche bags…
As for the poor, inexpensive universal health care is not welfare, it is a right, it make sense good business sense too, I lived in Germany and many other countries in the World…I have the money to live where ever I choose, even here in the USA where health care costs are nuts!
and the care far inferior than in most OEDC countries….unless you’re super rich, for the super rich one can say health car is OK in the US but you pay for it!
As for terrorism you are the naive one! Did you watch those buildings fall, all three were demolitions, no ifs ands or buts…believe your own eyes, amigo, those were demolitions…who planted the thermite bombs? Bin Laden? Cmon how could he have done that…the planes were a ruse (Mossad)…those buildings were “pulled”! Follow the money, honey, Silverstein, the 600 billion in put options, the insurance scams…do you think Bin Laden had the power to make our multi trillion dollar defense system stand down! Cmon who’s naive one here, only Cheney and Bush have that power and they used it alright! Jeb Bush’s company controlled security of the Building…Mossad agents rented a whole floor for a year posing as art students…who gained who lost?, Israel, the Saudis, big oil and military contractors gained big time…the Iraqi and Afghan people lost big time (over 300,000 children under 12 dead, millions injured and starving) because of this “terrorism” …yet who are the real terrrorists…the American people who voted for Bush! Zionists and neocons killed Americans for their screwed up world view…I promise you this is the truth…I love Israel and America but both countries are being controlled by crazy nutjobs and we let them get away with it…that’s what’s most depressing!
Birdbrain,
Now you have exposed yourself as a nut job. Twin Towers a demolition job? Did W have the explosives planted there to justify his pending war? Any slim bit of credibility is now gone.
You, my friend, are the nut job.
BFO, I’m with OOOJ on this one. You clearly have left the reservation.
If we had universal healthcare, BFO would have had the necessary medications.
WOW! Forcing drug companies to research something is a GREAT idea. When you force any company to do anything, you will usually get nothing.
BTW, healthcare is indeed expensive in the US but it is not inferior to the rest of the world. U.S. medical R&D leads most of the planet. The medical school system leads the world. Most of the pharma R&D comes through U.S. companies.
Bird, you need a rest.
the other, other, other jim
What I propose is a transfer of military dollars to humanitarian aid. If we currently spend $300 billion in Iraq on the military that would change next year to $200 military/$100 humanitarian. The following year would be $100m/$100h. Then just $100h the next year. Each year after that aid would drop by $25B until eliminated completely.
I would encourage the UN and other Muslim states to build a peacekeeping force. If not, oh well. We have AMERICANS like those in New Orleans who need our aid. We need to rebuild the USA before rebuilding Iraq.
“Both Hillary and McCain voted to fund the “illegal” war in Iraq. It’s unclear on Obama despite his claims to the contrary. Are they complicit in the “illegal” war?
Personally, I’d rather fight Al Queda with our military in Iraq than the streets of America.”
Lots of errors in your words here.
1. The war was a clear violation of international law, no gray area here.
2. There never was AQ in Iraq before we invaded so your sentence there doesn’t make any sense. That is right wing BS thrown out there. What you have done is created an Iraqi base for AQ.
3. It is 100% clear that Obama was against the war and built his campaign on that. He was right, they were wrong.
4. Obama was also right about Iran and Pakistan. Pakistan harbors far more AQ than Irag yet we do nothing against them.
5. If this President had any guts he would go against Saudi Arabia. They mutilate women and are the biggest source of terrorists in the world.
But he has no balls.
Larry, stop writing this blog immediately until you spell check. You write like a thoughtful, educated third-grader. You have potential, but you’re not there yet.
MC,
I can’t believe you are nit-picking me after the revelations of the Bird-woman.
1) Clear violation of int’l law. Says who and by what standard? No UN sanctioning? What war ever had UN sanctioning?
2) AQ not in Iraq. Neither Bush nor I said that AQ was in Iraq when the war started. My point was that they are there now and I’d prefer our military deal with them there than civilians here.
3) Obama 100% against war. I heard something on CNN about it not being clear if Obama was in fact against war before vote. I’ll attribute that to the Clinton propaganda machine and will concede that point.
4) Far more AQ in Iran and Pakistan than Iraq. Not sure there is any conclusive evidence to support that contention. More speculation. Even if that’s true, what’s your point? Invade Iran and Pakistan? Economic sanctions? Cut off diplomatic relations?
5) “Go against Saudi Arabia”. Not sure how that’s relevant. Same questions as 4 above. Should we stop buying oil from them? That will show them!
Finally, W has no balls. I would argue that he has stood standfast by his decision and convictions while his popularity rating has plummeted. Misguided maybe but not ball-less. Bill Clinton would have changed policy in a heartbeat if his popularity dropped 5 points. HRC is a slave to focus groups. Kerry and Gore would have been a complete joke. W maybe a lot of things but ball-less is not one of them.
I’m going to go out a limb here with a prediction…
On April 23, one of the Democrat candidates will emerge was the likely nominee.
On April 24, the Democrat Daily News and the Democrat Inquirer will endorse that person.
Call me crazy…
Larry, time for a subject change. You’ve lost everyone again…
Larry,it would not be a surprise to see obama win the penna. primary considering obama out spent Hillary by over 3 to 1 and with Hillary’s bosnia crisis it’s a stretch to think Hillary will beat obama let alone by five points or more.
to crazy joe aren’t you the guy that picked the patriots over the giants in the superbowl.
JR, I was the guy that guaranteed the Pats over the Giants
Rick-are you the same guy predicting Hillary over obama and John Mccain the next commander in chief?
Nationally, Hillary is totally on the ropes, no matter what happens here.
The Gallup Daily Tracking poll has Obama ahead among Democrats nationally 49% to 42%. (Last Friday, Clinton had pulled ahead by one point after the Wednesday night debate, but Obama recovered quickly.) The USA Today-Gallup poll has Obama ahead by 10 points, 50% to 40%. Newsweek’s poll released on Friday had Obama ahead nationally by 19 points, 54% to 35%.
Even if she wins here, she’s going to need double digits if she has even a faint hope of continuing to haul her carcass around the track and tear down the party.
Any truth to the rumor that the 10,000 men are providing security details at the polling stations ?
The super rich (millionaires on up) I’m guessing make up about 10% of the American population, of that perhaps 20% to 30% of them are moral and would vote against their own financial interests just to bring America back to the moral high ground…so that leaves less then 7% of the population, super rich AND immoral, that should normally vote Republican. Since it is in the financial interests of plus 93% of American to vote Democrat how on Earth do Republicans keep winning elections??? Does that mean half of America is grossly immoral even at the expense of their own financial interests???
We know in America that’s not the case but that’s the way it looks to the rest of the World, because the rest of the World can’t believe that a country with our wealth, good schools and freedom can have so many brainwashed working class people…we’re supposed to have good schools and a free press at least that what the rest of the world thinks…they know many Americans are good but less than 47%???…anyway that’s the way it looks to our neighbors, because we are not a dictatorship where people have no choice, we are free, supposedly.
Yo Larry, saw you on Hardball. Not bad, but that was an excellent smackdown of James Carville.
Other other Jim would rather send young men and women to fight AQ in Iraq so he doesn’t have to fight AQ here…well, other Jim, I guess that makes you a coward!
Bird, I’m a veteran. I proudly served my country for 7 years. Don’t call ME a coward.
Steve MG, this blog has become an annoyance to Larry. He far too important to participate here during this primary.
Bird, where do you come up with all this drivel?
You don’t need the ballot when you’ve got the bullet. Are you up for the downstroke, Philly?
that was in yesterday’s poll:… penna legal hunters:Hillary leads by 25 points…penna illegal hand gun owners: obama has a 75 point lead.
Anne Oakley meets Elmer Fudd
Why doesn’t she go hunting with VP Cheney?
JR
How did they get the demographic sample of illegal gun owners?
You have gone over the top.
Better yet, why doesn’t Bird go hunting with VP Cheney?
How about Annie Oakley and 50 Cent?