The Larry Kane Report

The FBI confirms that a total of 16 companies are under investigation in the mortgage crisis. The question, as always – was their fraud or criminal intent?

There is one question that the FBI cannot answer. Were mortgage brokers, brokerage houses and some banks stupid and greedy? That question will be answered by the CEO”s of some of these institutions who will have to answer for their actions.

There is one aspect of this crisis that is outrageous. Some of the companies that argue that they are the stable, time-tested rocks of financial security, certainly didn’t act that way when they ran up the big tabs by offering loans to people who couldn’t afford the consequences.

Some of these firms were aided by government oversight that was, at best, a joke.

Now on to Northern Illinois and the gun tragedy. Once again, you have to ask yourself the question: Could a premeditated murderer kill and injure so many people with a knife? The answer is no.

While protecting second amendment rights, we must keep weapons out of the hands of potentially dangerous people.

The time has come for a full-scale Presidential campaign debate on selective gun control in America. I know, the pro-gun folks will call me a left wing reactionary. but it is time for action. And besides, I am a reactionary, but not an extremist, nor a tool of the left or right. On this issue, it is a matter of common sense.

Just try one thing. Try to put yourself in the position of a parent or friend of someone at Northern Illinois. You might want to revisit your position on guns in America. In fact, I know you will.

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I’ve done the math and it is a battle for Hillary Clinton. The latest delegate count: Obama 1223, Clinton 1161. That means that the New York Senator would have to win 55 percent of the remaining delegates. And remember this: it is not the amount of primaries won, but the PERCENTAGE of the vote in each state. Senator Clinton can win Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania, but she needs BIG margins.

This may explain why the Clinton campaign has abandoned its “lets wait for March 4th”strategy. The campaign had written off Wisconsin next Tuesday, where Obama seems to have a real lock,. But now, Clinton is on TV in Wisconsin and will extol the virtues of the cheese and dairy mecca for the next six days. Will it be enough? Maybe not, but remember on the same day, Barack Obama will pick up the bulk of the delegates in Hawaii. There are 20 available there.

There’s another figure that is haunting for both candidates. Between Pennsylvania on April 22nd and the last primary in early June, a total of 557 delegates are at stake. That is mind boggling.

Right now Obama’s appeal and momentum is racing so fast that it is breaking the sound barrier. Clinton is smart not to skip any competition. Every vote counts. Obama is the most skillful Presidential candidate in decades. He will be tough to catch, and tough to beat, especially in those late primaries. But one thing is certain – Barack Obama’s accent on every state and every primary and caucus has been the reason for his amazing ascent, along with the force of his personality and the clarity of his message for a clean sweep.

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As I write, Barack Obama has won eight contests in a row. Hillary Clinton has written off more primaries lately than she’s competed in. Next Tuesday, she will forgo Wisconsin and Hawaii (Caucus) and a non binding primary in Washington State.

Is this good, or is the Senator following the lethal strategy of Mayor Rudy?  Is it better to try and win a few and gain momentum, instead of waiting for Ohio and Texas on March 4?  Thank goodness, you and I don’t have to make these decisions. But in the meantime, Obama may gain so much momentum that he might not be able to be stopped.

One thing is certain:  Pennsylvania will play a major role. April 22nd is a long way off, but it could be, as pollster Terry Madonna calls it, “THE DECIDER.”  Don’t you love it?

On the Republican side, John McCain is  soclose he can taste it. Another 165 delegates and  “game over.”

You tell me if I’m right in this observation: It seems the more that the super conservative wing of the party attacks him, the more popular he becomes among Democrats and Independents.

My advice to McCain – keep your naturally conservative credentials alive, but don’t pander. See where pandering got Mitt Romney?

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Before you start filling out your grids for March madness – get this. Local and regional sources inside the Clinton campaign now say that their most important stand against the Obama momentum will be in Texas and Ohio on March 4th. The Potomac primaries today will probably go to Obama, and Wisconsin and Hawaii may be Obama country next Tuesday.

So as roundball madness embraces America, Hillary Clinton may lock her survival chances on Ohio and Texas on March 4 and Pennsylvania on April 22.

Not so fast!

The Clinton campaign has some brilliance left in it, Playing the role of undergog becomes the Senator, and if she can win in Ohio or Texas, there is still Pennsylvania.

The problem is that Obama’s momentum is engulfing the nation. This kind of candidate mania hasn’t been seen since JKF in 1960 and the Reagan charisma that siezed the nation in 1980. But alot can happen between now and the Pa. Primary.

Since I was the one who predicted in November that John McCain would be the “last man standing,” I offer with great humility, my take on the count and the amount.

Various estimates have Obama at 1130 delegates, Clinton at about 1100. My estimate is that the two will go into Ohio and Texas with this number:

Obama 145o, Clinton at 1200. This includes Super Delegates. March 4th could tie it up or give Obama a huge lead. If Obama keeps the current trend, he could have 1700 delegates on March 4th. If Clinton scores big, it could be deadlocked.

Watch the numbers. I believe April 22nd in Pennsylvania may end the contest, or get close to it.

I should note that my prediction on McCain was one of my few accurate forecasts in the last 3 years. I forecast that Michael Nutter would be Mayor only after he started surging in the polls. That showed great courage on my part.

So beware of analysts with numbers.

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The Obarama continues with no letup in sight. The Senator has the greatest kind of campaign going – personal appeal and a crossover vote from whites that is alarming the real racists around the nation. Whatever happens, the Obama success is unprecedented and amazing to watch.

Enter Super-Delegates, about 780 of them, who can change their mind anytime about who they will support. With Hillary Clinton on the defensive, the Clintonites are hoping to perhaps eek out this historic nominating process by gaining the support of Super-Delegates. Most of them are elected officials, some are big money contributors, and others are friends. It could work the other way around, with Obama edging out a win.

The Super Delegates are dangerous in this year of enlightenment.

If either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama squeeze out a victory with Super Delegates and defy the POPULAR VOTE AND THE POPULAR VOTE FOR DELEGATES, the Democratic Party will lose this election.

Super-delegates were designed to mirror the elections in their home states and rally around a popularly-elected candidate and avoid the backroom dealings that once dominated political conventions. They have a role, but in general, with the groundswell of political interest this year, their role could be the end of any Democratic chances to recapture the White House.

If millions of people feel disenfranchised by a small group of political elites, the primary beneficiary will be Senator John McCain.

It appears now that even after the Pa. Primary on April 22,  the battle may not be over. It is my opinion that if Obama winds up taking Ohio and Texas on March 4th, the Clintons will have no choice but to try and stop his momentum by appealing to the “Supers.”

This all may be legal in the Democratic Party, but even Howard Dean, the DNC chairman, knows that he has to avoid this kind of fight.

This is very dangerous territory.

Speaking of questionable tactics:  A small group of you are using offensive  language in letters on this site. I want to warn you again that this will not be tolerated. You can be testy, and outrageous, but you can’t be profane. If you can’t say it without resorting to profanity, then go find a sewer or another website.

To those of you who offer so much everyday, thanks for being part of it. Your thoughts and opinions are really appreciated. Thanks for taking the time.

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