The Larry Kane Report

As the Superbowl of local politics winds down, there are some questions that remain unanswered.

The biggest mystery of all is Chaka Fattah His campaign has been strangely run from the beginning. The odds-on favorite, he seemed to be preaching an old time politics. His theme of battling poverty was genuine and needed. But he failed to universalize the issue, to explain how it was important to the future of the whole city. Instead, he appeared to be targeting just the minority vote, which was moving in large numbers to Mike Nutter and Tom Knox.

The second mystery is Knox. Knox was managed by Joe Trippi, a super pro who brought in an expert local manager. But Knox wasn’t prepared for the heat that a frontrunner generates. His defense of his own record during the debates looked like he wasn’t prepared, and his “kick butt” comment to Bob Brady was not very Mayoral.

There is a mystery about Bob Brady that I can easily unravel. People ask why he didn’t go after Knox in the early days. First of all, Bob Brady has and always will be, a gentleman. He would not personally approve negative ads until late in the campaign. The real Bob Brady , a man whose charisma is astounding, never was really seen during the campaign. But I still contende that he will be tough as nails on election day and his finish may surprise you.

There is no mystery about Dwight Evans. The city’s most brilliant and powerful state lawmaker just couldn’t get traction in a five-man field. But whatever the outcome, he will remain a huge power.

The story of Michael Nutter will be one for the ages. As his media mogul Neil Oxman has learned for years, you can’t sell what’s not sellable. Nutter’s story is a campaign of issues, a bold look of seriousness, and the realization that he could change the atmosphere at City Hall. His daughter Olivia brought a human side to the intense candidate.

The unnoticed factor is what I call the Meehan factor. The courageous U.S. attorney’s sweeping investigation of City Hall corruption changed everything. More than the investigations, the tone he set demanded that candidates and voters would pay attention to the big issue (outside of crime), pay to play.

Without Pat Meehan’s investigation, there would be no ethics bill, no Tom Knox using the ethics issue as a launch pad, and no chance that Michael Nutter, an ethics crusader, would soar to the lead.
It is almost over, and as pollster Terrry Maddona says, “It may be a seminal moment in Philadelphia history.”

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As the Superbowl of local politics winds down, there are some questions that remain unanswered.

The biggest mystery of all is Chaka Fattah His campaign has been strangely run from the beginning. The odds-on favorite, he seemed to be preaching an old time politics. His theme of battling poverty was genuine and needed. But he failed to universalize the issue, to explain how it was important to the  future of the whole city. Instead, he appeared to be targeting just the minority vote, which was moving in large numbers to Mike Nutter and Tom Knox.

The second mystery is Knox. Knox was managed by Joe Trippi, a super pro who brought in an expert local manager. But Knox wasn’t prepared for the heat that a frontrunner generates. His defense of his own  record during the debates looked like he wasn’t prepared, and his “kick butt” comment to Bob Brady was not very Mayoral.

There is a mystery  about Bob Brady that I can easily unravel. People ask why he didn’t go after Knox in the early days. First of all, Bob Brady has and always will be, a gentleman. He would not personally approve negative ads until late in the campaign. The real Bob Brady , a man whose charisma is astounding, never was really seen during the campaign. But I still contende that he will be tough as nails on election day and his finish may surprise you.

There is no mystery about Dwight Evans. The city’s most brilliant and powerful state lawmaker just couldn’t get traction in  a five-man field. But whatever the outcome, he will remain a huge power.

The story of Michael Nutter will be one for the ages. As his media mogul Neil Oxman has learned for years, you can’t sell what’s not sellable. Nutter’s story is a campaign of issues, a bold look of seriousness, and the realization that he could change the atmosphere at City Hall. His daughter Olivia brought a human side to the intense candidate.

The unnoticed factor is what I call the Meehan factor. The courageous U.S. attorney’s sweeping investigation of City Hall corruption changed everything. More than the investigations, the tone he set demanded that candidates and voters would pay attention to the big issue (outside of crime), pay to play.

Without Pat Meehan’s investigation, there would be no ethics bill, no Tom Knox using the ethics issue as a launch pad, and no chance that Michael Nutter, an ethics crusader, would soar to the lead.
It is almost over, and as pollster Terrry Maddona says,  “It may be a seminal moment in Philadelphia history.”

Comments Off

Mayor John Street (or someone at his house) slams the door on an Inquirer reporter the other night, and goes on a minor rant as he refuses to answer questions that he tried to raise funds for ads to damage Mayoral frontrunner Michael Nutter.

Street is the most unusual politician in town. Talented and savvy, he has still refused to be a great communicator in the last seven years. Like a man on an island, he has not listened to advisers and has garnered a depressing voter approval rate because he has stubbornly resented the part of his job that is most important – communicating with the people.

Now, he may have committed a great political blunder.

His trusted adviser Shawn Fordham has confirmed that the Mayor has made calls to help fuel an anti-Nutter movement.

What a blunder this could be!
Street has little political clout and now, in the final hours of a hotly contested race to take his place, he goes after Nutter.

This reporter believes it may actually bring more votes to Nutter. For Tom Knox this news is bad news on the doorstep. Knox has been trying to narrow the gap, whatever that gap is, and now Hizzoner makes Michael Nutter a hero by trying to stop him.

I have always admired the Mayor’s determination, but at the same time, I have disdained his absolute refusal to understand the ramifications of his actions.

Bob Brady, who will always be the all star powerbroker-healer, must be shaking his head, along with Chaka Fattah. Fattah has been trying to chip away at Nutter, but the Mayor is not helping him.

INCIDENTALLY, WATCH BRADY’S ELECTION DAY STREET OPERATION. IT COULD SURPRISE A LOT OF PEOPLE.
And Dwight Evans, perhaps running last, still knows that when the fat lady sings, he will remain the most powerful Philadelphian in the state legislature.

There is something that all the candidates can take from the John Street lesson in not winning friends and influencing people: If you win, how you communicate your goals can make you a great Mayor. Use your power wisely. When you start losing your power, do not be vindictive.

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At this point of the wild Philadelphia Mayoral campaign, I am absolutely stunned at how ego has shaped this race. Big time ego has put several candidates in questionable status.

Let’s start with Chaka Fattah. This is a man I have known for almost 30 years. He’s smart, knows the city and has been able to light up and invigorate voters. Yet, during this campaign, he has repeatedly ignored adviser’s advice to run a real citywide campaign, and modernize his message. But what we got from this talented guy is a mixture of promises, promises about one issue -erasing poverty. It is idealism at its best, but in a practical sense, Philadelphians are more interesting in cutting crime with hard tactics. It has been a hard campaign for Fattah and his desperation showed at the final TV debate.

Tom Knox ran strong until his record was attacked. You’ve got to take the hits in a campaign and get some thick skin for the long haul. Sources say that his recent demeanor, and his shrill threat to Bob Brady to kick his posterior, was part of a frustration that began when Knox’s easy ride was rained on by tough attacks on his record. Ask Bill Clinton or John McCain – you don’t get rattled when the road becomes bumpy. Suddenly the carefully shielded Knox of the famous commercials looked a little less majestic. Ignoring adviser’s advice, he tended to lose his cool in the public encounters. But he may still be able to salvage his performance.

The other three have listened carefully. Dwight Evans, inspired by Philly political legend Bill Miller, has run a consistent campaign with no gaffes. Although he trails, he has stood his ground.

Bob Brady would not allow his campaign to go after Knox in the early going. That’s because Brady is the gentleman of the bunch. something that went unnoticed by the editorial writers. Whatever the outcome, he will remain king of the political community in Philadelphia.

Michael Nutter did something that was hard for Michael Nutter to do. Fiercely independent, Nutter listened to his advisers, including master message and advertising talent Neal Oxman. But it was his campaign chairman Dick Hayden and personal friends like John Saler who have kept him on track.

I don’t know if this will come true next Tuesday. But candidates who are steady, stable, and issue-oriented, usually have a happy ending. Dwight Evans didn’t catch on, but he hasn’t hurt himself.

Michal Nutter connected with voters and never strayed from his message.

Now, at the final turn, the fab five faces the finish line and the truth.

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The week of truth has arrived. The debates are over. All that’s left is the sleepless nights and incessant campaigning by the five men who want to be Mayor of Philadelphia.

They are nervous. And they should be.

I’ll begin with Tom Knox. Knox, until too weeks ago, felt the love that millions of dollars of TV ads could buy. Then the shine came off the campaign with negative reports of his business practices and a scathing article in Philadelphia Magazine. Since that time, independent polling shows Knox being seriously challenged by Michael Nutter. The first part of this week is huge for Knox. The F and M Poll will be released on Wednesday. If the poll shows Michael Nutter ahead, Knox will unleash a advertising barrage that will make his earlier campaign look small by comparison.

The problem that Knox has now is that Nutter, Bob Brady, Chaka Fattah and the hard-driving Dwight Evans have enough money combined to counter his push.

My view: At this point in the race, as Paul McCartney would say, “Money Can’t Buy You Love.”

Money can put you on the map. It can sell you. But history shows that well-financed or self-financed candidates who face trouble in their campaigns must be able to take the incoming flak and deal with it. Right now, most Philadelphians know enough about Tom Knox to make a choice. His barrage won’t do him much good. Winning or losing will depend now more on viewer and voter instinct.

On the other hand: Nutter and Brady still have time left to create an unusual synergy. If Brady improves his standing, even by a few points, he could slice away at Knox.

Other scenarios: If Dwight Evans gets more supporters, he will hamper Chaka Fattah, who has staked his claim on winning the minority vote.,

Bottom line: If Knox loses his edge, Michael Nutter stands to gain the most from ANY IMPROVEMENTS BY EVANS AND BRADY.

In the world of political momentum, perception is reality.

If the independent F and M poll shows Nutter gaining fast, or leading, he has a good chance of scoring an upset against the self-financed Knox.

In any event, this will be a week to remember!

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