The Larry Kane Report

Moderating a Mayoral Debate is my idea of a great morning. My time with Bob Brady, Dwight Evans , Chaka Fattah, Tom Knox and Michael Nutter was a close up view of the fab five with I4 days left. You can hear the entire thing on podcast at KYW1060.com. JUST CLICK LINK TO RIGH.  KYW’S MIKE DUNN AND STEVE TAWA WERE TENACIOUS. It was high drama and the first live debate. It was also the best.
Brady was on fire, He lashed out at KYW Newsradio City Hall guy Mike Dunn, when Dunn interrupted one of his answers. Brady was trying to answer a question about casinos when Dunn foilowed up. At one point, Brady charged, “Are you goin to let me talk?” For his part, Brady offered one of the best retorts of the debate, when, referring to Tom Knox’s business practices, he said, “You’ve been ripping off the public for 40 years.”

Apparent frontrunner Tom Knox seemed halting at first, but he regained his energy as he cautiously answered questions about his past business of offering payday loans. But Knox finished the debate intact, considering that everyone was on the attack against him.

Michael Nutter, who many believe is threatening Knox’s lead, defended his plan to have police to stop and frisk suspects, while Dwight Evans suggested it may be illegal. Evans and Nutter were both eloquent. What you couldn’t see was the body language between the fab five . Brady was waving at the others, and Nutter, Brady, Fattah and Evans all seemed happy with each other, and with each other’s shots at Knox. Knox, quiet and pensive, did not mind being alone in the group of friends.
The biggest surprise of the debate was Fattah, who was more forceful and deliberate in this debate that at anytime in the campaign.

So, what’s next? With 30 percent undecided, it is all up in the air.

Here’s what to look for:

Knox will not strike back against ferocious attacks by
Bob Brady, because there Is a fear that this might
push voters into the Nutter Camp.
A so called 527 independent group will introduce new
and scathing attacks on Knox.

Chaka Fattah will gear up what he calls the best
street machine in the city. Bob Brady would disagree
with that.

Dwight Evans plows straight ahead, undaunted and
determined..

And Nutter, fresh from an endorsement by the
Inquirer, says his fund raising is soaring.

Once again, you can listen to the entire BREAKFAST WITH THE CANDIDATES AT KYW1060.COM.

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Late notes from the Mayoral campaign.

The first truly live debate takes place 8 to 9 a.m. Monday morning - Breakfast with the Candidates on KYW Newsradio 1060. I will moderate and Mike Dunn and Steve Tawa will be asking the questions. Expect fireworks.

The contest is now a brand new one. (see poll info below).

This was a tough week for Tom Knox, his first one of the campaign. One tough week in 5 months is not bad. How Knox reacts to attention on his business record and negative ads against him, will determine his ability to finish strong.

Michael Nutter is on a roll. The Inky has endorsed him - a glowing endorsement, with some nice words for Dwight Evans thrown in. The Inquirer endorsement surprised me, because the paper had nothing but valentines in its coverage for Chaka Fattah. But the Editorial Board is a separate entity, and has little connection with the headline writers. Nutter should be happy. Maybe he’ll smile a little more.

Fattah is not done in this race, and neither is Bob Brady. This campaign has been marked by fast-moving voter sentiments.

The lead may change dramatically in the next several weeks.

Earlier this week, The PEG (Pennsylvanian For Excellence in Government) poll showed that this battle has been turned upside down by the apparent abandonment of racial pattern voting. Both frontrunner Tom Knox and the surging Michael Nutter have serious black AND white support. In fact, Nutter, may, in the end, draw more white voters than Knox, if the pattern continues. The poll has a couple of points separating Knox and Nutter.
Sources in three of the campaigns report internal polling that shows frontrunner Tom Knox still leading, but wth Nutter and in some polls, Bob Brady, closing the gap. But, remember: these are internal polls and are often adjusted to help fundraising.

My instincts tell me that the race is tightening because of increased scrutiny on Knox, Nutter’s impressive advertising, and the beginning of a real focus on the contest. Chaka Fattah is obviously aware that he has problems. His ads are starting to focus on crime-fighting, and are no longer just aimed at the black community.

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Tom Knox lost round three of his attempt to bump Bob Brady off the ballot when the Supreme Court refused to tackle the issue.

Meanwhile Michael Nutter and Chaka Fattah are walking on eggs, while Bob Brady and Dwight Evans are doing the heavy lifting. Brady and Evans are on a non stop barrage of anti-Knox messaging. Brady and Evans talk to each other all the time, leading to speculation that the two Democratic allies have something up their sleeve.

One thing is certain: Nutter and Fattah will not leave this contest. But the coziness of Evans and Brady is fascinating. What’s up there?

It appears that, polls not withstanding, people are beginning to focus on the race, especially with all the spotlight on the golden boy , Knox, or as the Daily News calls him, Fort Knox. Can the shrewd and determined candidate survive the  attacks on him, and how hard will he strike back?

One thing si bothering the Knox forces - Sam Katz. If Knox wins his primary, Katz will definitely get in as an independent, hoping to appeal to black and labor voters who might be unhappy with the result.

There is a mystery man in this contest - electrical union chief John Dougherty who wants to be the playmaker at the end. With an army of several thousand poll workers, Dougherty can make a difference. WE CAN TELL YOU THAT HE HAS HAD CONVERSATIONS WITH BRADY AND KNOX, BUT SO FAR HE’S PLAYING IT CLOSE TO THE VEST.

I believe that deals are in the works right now that can make this contest a very close one, with a surprise or two in the final two weeks.

In the meantime, don’t forget to check in on the web or on-air to KYW Newsradio 1060, next Monday, April 30th, 8 to 9 a.m. It is the first live debate between the fab five. I will moderate and Mike Dunn and Steve Tawa will do the questioning. This will be fast moving and informative.

And maybe Knox, Fattah, and Nutter will stop being so polite!

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Here is the very latest in the Philadelpia Mayor’s race from the inside.

All the campaigns are awaiting a release of a Philadelphia Magazine story that sources say really unloads on Tom Knox. In fact, it was the Knox campaign that told me the article would be a scalping. We should have the details shortly. Sources say the piece is revealing and personal reference to Knox. We’ll see.

All the campaigns have now done private polling, and all of them show Knox in the lead. These polls will no doubt shape the final three week’s strategy. Keep in mind that on April 30th, KYW Newsradio will broadcast the first “LIVE” debate, Breakfast With The Candidates, 8 to 9 a.m. I will moderate and Mike Dunn and Steve Tawa will be asking the questions. This is  prime time, drive time debate, and could be significant.

The Brady. Evans, Nutter and Fattah campaigns are struggling to find additional money for the final stretch. Fattah is hoping that his street organization will make up the difference. Brady is encouraged by the fact that his forces encouraged up to 15,000 Republicans to change their registration to vote for him. Nutter is steadfast in believing that his 15 to 17 percent showing (depending on the poll), may be he precursor of a momentous finish. Dwight Evans is just a believer that his experience will pull him through.

One thing is certain: If any of them want to have a chance, they will have to target Knox, if they have the political ammunition.

For Tom Knox, this will be a test. If the others blast him with a counter attack, how he responds may be the biggest moment of the campaign.

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We are coming up on the three week mark in the
Philadelphia Mayors race. Reality may be sinking in on four of the five
candidates running for mayor. It’s all about what used
to be called in the cold war era, mutual assured
destruction. That’s when the United States and the
Soviet Union had so many nuclear weapons, that they
were assured both would be destroyed if either one
started a war. In the case of Bob Brady, Chaka Fattah,
Dwight Evans and Michael Nutter, it might appear that
if all of them stayed in the race they could guarantee
a victory by frontrunner Tom Knox whose money seems
unlimited. Along with Knox’s successful campaign effort, the four are dividing the vote, and assisting Knox in the process.
The only caveat here is the possibility of a surprise in
the race or a sudden plunge in the polls whose
support has been resilient.

So what are the scenarios? All four stay in and Knox wins by a large margin.

The trailing four hold a secret meeting to figure out how to stop Knox.

All four try to take Knox down with ads, but Knox, with big money, gets the last word.

Governor Rendell gets involved as a “mediator.”

These are all possibilities. Nothing is certain. But I do know this: The Democratic party insiders want to stop Knox. But there’s a problem. They are running out of time.

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